Election Night Surprises

Two big risks have blow up in the faces of two major party leaders in Scotland and rUK tonight. Firstly Theresa May is shockingly denied a majority, and will only have a majority by appeasing the DUP in ulster. The gains in Scotland are a hollow victory, because Scottish MPs cannot vote on England only laws and policy,  much of it key to the mannifesto in terms of Schools, Transport and Policing. Nicola Sturgeon was handed a major blow losing at time of writing 21 seats, but retaining a large majority of seats.

We await postal votes, which have been Tory biased in the past, but now many UK expats will be worried as hell about their EU and EEA residency ( it mildly concerns me too of course) But Corbyn will not get an SNP supported government. He will though get a huge amount of credibility both in rUK and Scotland at beating the Tories down with their £11m estimated spend, using a paltry £3m.

It looks like voters are a little tired of Leaders in their respective countries calling referendii and elections for their own ends and opportunistic advantage. True 62% of voters in Scotland on Brexit said no thanks, but not in the seats which are a surprising shade of blue today. Also IndyRef was a very high turn out, as it has also been in these seats, with all parties but the SNP gaining in some. There is a clear vote against indyref 2 so soon and as I have said before rightly so.

The SNP knew they had demographics on their side in the longer term, and even without EU citizen votes (which may or may not be withdrawn from residents we do not know) , but they decided there was a concrete connection between Remain and Indy. There wasn’t.

The SNP have for years done a terrible job on actually painting an economic picture that is anything else than a wish-list and speculation. They bind themselves to the GERS figures whcih show a ScoGDP at around 145-162Bn pounds, which is only in line with a per capita proportion of the UK.  Why is Scotland so much Smaller an Economy than Denmark? It is placed around the same size as New Zealand, which has fewer people but a larger country. Living in Norway, I do not beleive the Scottish economy is around the £320bn GDP for Norway (2015) because although Scottish Waters have delivered the same amount of oil in total since 1969, Norway now produces far more per annum from investment and exploration down within it’s larger continental shelf. Denmark is around £244bn depending on the year and exhcange rate, but this is perhaps even as far as I would say Scotland could be.

With a centre left Corbyn revival, it could be that the Blairites buckle down to their new surprise success story, a modest gentleman, so smeared by the right wing media, yet able to come through with huge credibility from grass roots, town to town campaigning. Also Theresa May and hence the Tories will face ‘LibyaGate’ regarding the manchester bomber and one of the London suspects who were able to travel to fight in Libya to fight as Jihadists against Gidafi, and return. The allegation is that MI5 were involved with them in order to gather or intercept intelligence on the ground in Libya. The story in the news is their passports were confiscated by their Father, but is that really true?

Another general election means that a left wing coalition can arise, given the SNP and Labour agree to cooperate. Even without English Only Legislatory power, such a government would have a majority on the shape of Brexit and macro economic policy, including the much demonised Dept. Work and Pensions.  It may push the credibility up further and allow for a labour majority. That is a little unlikely because it looks like libdem voters and their politicians are not interested in working with labour, so it would just be the SNP. They could reppeal the act though, but it is seen as a natural progression towards autonomy by the SNP. Alternatively a majority like this could introduce a Scottish and Continental style semi Proportional Representation with a regional and city wide ‘list’ of extra candidates reflecting general voting patterns. That would of course lock the UK potentially into years of coalition governance, which would upset the ‘city’ at first, but they like many other EU countries would settle down to the idea of a centre politic, with minor swings right and left.

Now the SNP and Labour have to rally around what they should do, because despite 71% of Scots not voting for them, they got 13 seats (so far at time of writing) which is rather the boot on the other foot when Thatcher ruled supreme on only 37% of the vote, but had a majority, they manage 22% of seats on 28% of the vote.

I would bet on either a fragile, ‘weak and feeble’ DUP back alliance without Thresa May and with compromise on the ‘No Deal’ bravado, which has lost its shine since Le Pen lost and the Euro Zone is growing faster than the UK, even Greece.

 

Advertisements