No doubt Nicloa Strugeon is seeking PR spin to try and come out shining from either backing a hard indryref2 or backing down from it – for now. Both are kind of wrong in their own ways – the mandate is reduced by the first past the post system, and there is less than half support for a new referendum, with some of that being from No voters wanting to bury the SNP once and for all time.
The SNP and others who are keen on independence, would be better to bide their time. They need to make a far better case for an economically successful Scotland back in the EU. Time should be on their side, and they need to reflect on why this is so.
Firstly we do not know much about the shape of Brexit, and secondly, it means on ecomnomic policy that there will be some very arrogant decisions made if Theresa May manages to hang onto power. There will be headline disruptive media policy making, while behind the scenes more power will be taken away from workers and more money taken away from the weakest in society, while on the other hand, more public money will be going to profits in privatised sectors. That is the Neo (liberalist) Conservative way – feed the rich first and well, trickle down is a nice theory isn’t it?
Given that ‘trade deals’ are the great white hope and pretty much an empty policy in fact, then that should be a good number of remain voters north of the border, who had a larger majority than No, who will be prepared to vote YES. But that will take time for the deals to show how ‘assymetric’ they are or how little effect they will have on business growth, contra the inflationary pressures of being outside the EU.
The trouble is that the EU is our largest and nearest trading partner, and disruption to supply in both directions threatens businesses with inflation and reduced productivity from slower supply chains. Also if the UK think they are getting out of lots of ‘silly straight banana legislation’ then they are about to find out that the global market doesn’t care for also ran standards. Due to economies of scale, the UK will have to accept that the vast majority of products and many services will be ISO EN compliant. Only this time the UK will have little or no influence over the content of these standards. Jam makers rejoice, but in fact if they want to expand and export their high quality wares they will need to CE label and conform to EN. Or the US standards.
China is the sunrise hope for many conservatives who have been making overtures to them for years, ignoring not only their human rights- record but also their economic philosophy which is straight out of printing money, controlling prices, controlling supply keynsianism of the 1940s and 50s. The Chinese deal with Switzerland is illustratory – China gets access to Switzerland now, but cuckoo clocks, swatch watches and emental cheese must wait almost two decades to have tairff and quote free access to China. It is a market size thing. We big, you wait long time. UK schools are hardly geared up for Mandarin lessons either. It will offer the supermarket chains access to cheap produce and despite all the talk of food security, China actually has plans and the force to be self sufficient.
So come the actual time of Brexit and year or so after, the gloss of trade-deals and kicking foriegners out so youth can pick fruit and work on building sites, will have worn off. Also the little elephant in the living room is that immigration is fuelling the housing market on which so much of the English economy depends. UK ethnic women are not having kids, they are having careers and divorces. It is not only adult immigrants who boost demand in the housing market, the east europeans still have a culture for having more than one kid and starting a decade before educated UK women do.
So biding time for the real shape of Brexit will be good, and while the Labour party continues to hate its self, split between power hungry blairite Neo Conservative appeasers and ground swell from the actual left of centre behind Corbyn in the rank and file membership. You know the people who haven’t had a pay rise for a decade and have to have top up benefits and tax credits to try and make ends meet.
The other worthwhile factor in this is to see if EU nationals get the vote or not post Brexit. It is unlikely, in which case at least 100,000 Yes and Back-In voters north of the border are lost to Brexit. On the other hand if they retain their vote by residency or dual nationality say, then this is a powerful force given that BrexPolicy treats them as disposable and deportable if they for example, lose their jobs.
On time then too, the SNP would do well to let the war time generation and national service ‘in this together’ generation slowly die away. They are solid No voters. Baby boomers will start to see that all is not so shiny with the threat of inflation and possibly falling house prices post Brexit. So those in their 60s now will be looking at a retiral with less certainty offered by the union. We then have more youth becoming old enough to vote and having their naive hopes of course for something better than UK employment legislation in front of them.
For the SNP it is really a case of letting these factors run their course and being opportunistic only when there is an opporuntiy and a sea-change towards a solid Yes vote. Also that will give them time to address their bug-bear of education, and re-route investment into education. This is currently the stick all the pro unionists want to beat the SNP MSP base up with, and they are willing to ignore any positives and dig out any negatives on education to try and make it all stick. Would Labour have done a better job in managing the cuts in central funding and appeasing the teaching unions if they ran Holyrood? Or the conservatives, with their £7bn for purchasing new grounds for ‘free schools’ – a subsidy to tiger mummies and cricket snob daddies. Underfund public services and then replace them with over-funded private or independent solutions which look all shiny and attract the aspirant voters who managed to get their kids in or want to. What happened to good comprehensive education for all? Did it not quadruple the number of university graduates, and render Scotland (not that the BBC will say anything) the highest educated country in the EU ?
There will be a very clear choice for voters in future, between a weak and divided labour party and a bunch of charlatans in the conservatives looking to make a name for themselves by making it easier for landlords to exploit their tennants, or businesses to avoid health and safety or over time.
The choice isclear, between a society which is hell bent on following the neo conservative American model, which does so little for half of society, or the continuing success of the European / Scandinavian social democratic route to a meritocrical society rather than a silver-spoon baby wins society. Scotland has continued to diverge from this true-blue, sod-the-poor centre of gravity south of the border and will continue to so because of the egalitarian nature of life. England is a society in the throws of re-stratification, and where you are born and into how much wealth will increasingly determine your prospects in life due to differential access to qaulity education along class and geographical lines, the cost of higher and even further education and then the social circles in which you have grown up being more closed to “lower” classes. For thirty years they Tories have been selling snobbery and one up man ship to a sector of society and it has been a success, only that other sectors of society see the result as negative for them.
Unfortunately for the Leavers and Conservatives in power, the EU is doing rather well with even the basket case economies turned round and growing more than the UK. Wages have kept up and outstripped inflation, and employers and the state have invested in productivity which goes hand in hand with higher wages. The UK has a productivity ‘puzzle’ to many, but there should be no surprise – so much of the English economy and that of Wales and Ulster are tied up with consumer services and consumer financial products that it is easy to see why productivity is in a long term hole.
Independence can offer a different route which also reflects the fact that Scotland has a highly diversified primary and secondary economy which outperforms the rUK economy when London is taken out of the picture it can be argued.
For now people are bored with politics and likely to punish the SNP as they did Theresa May for bringing more blah blah to their TV screens. Nicola would be best to think up a good PR strategy for now which is a step down not a climb down, and eat some humble pie in the face of the Tory revival north of the Border which has been fuelled by No /Leave voters.